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Ph.D. Defense: Dylan Glotzer

April 3, 2018 @ 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm

Ph.D. Thesis Defense

Public Presentation*

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018

324 Hanes Hall
1:00 PM

Dylan Glotzer

 

Extreme value analysis, nonlinear random oscillators,
and applications to ship motions in irregular seas
(under direction of Vladas Pipiras)

 

This talk will focus on primarily statistical approaches to the analysis of two extreme (rare) events of interest in Naval Architecture: a ship motion (e.g. roll) exceeding a large target angle, and the capsizing of a ship, both measured by relevant “metrics.” The standard peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach from Extreme Value Theory is used to estimate the exceedance probabilities and extrapolate into the distribution tails for both events of interest using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) above a threshold. Special attention is paid to the construction of confidence intervals for the exceedance probabilities. Consideration of a qualitative physical model (the nonlinear random oscillator) suggests particular characters of the two distribution tails, motivating the use of the POT approach involving distributions other than the GPD. In particular, the exponential and Weibull-tailed distributions, as well as a heavy-tailed distribution, are successful in reducing uncertainty (length of confidence intervals) in estimation of exceedance probabilities of the two rare events of interest.

 

*Please note that seating may be limited

 

 

 

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Details

Date:
April 3, 2018
Time:
1:00 pm - 3:00 pm
Event Category:

Venue

Hanes Hall
Hanes Hall
Chapel Hill, NC 27599 United States